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En cuanto a las proyecciones respecto a la ruta futura flexibilización de la política monetaria, el dot plot del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) anticipa una mayor bajada de tipos en 2024 y 2025 respecto al trimestre anterior. 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En cuanto al cambio de sesgo, se espera que llegue con los primeros recortes en 2024 (teniendo únicamente como incógnita el inicio de estos, dada la postura dependiente de los datos de la Reserva Federal), con una inflación más controlada (2,4% en 2024 y 2,2% en 2025), una brecha del producto cercana a 0,0%, y el cierre de la brecha con el tipo de interés dictaminado por la regla de Taylor en 2023, tras un ciclo monetario históricamente acelerado y agresivo."]],"displayName":"Label 3 Copy 2","formulas":[{"txt":"69c54a2373698236531ce6e3fc84ae86@PROCICLI 2024,B8;","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"My Label"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"font_style":"","type":"label","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dst88adfcdd"},"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":0.0},"size":"x-small","fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":true,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"id":"88adfcdd","wrap":true},{"data":[[]],"displayName":"Label 6 Copy 3","formulas":[{"txt":"69c54a2373698236531ce6e3fc84ae86@PROCICLI DIC22,B10;","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"My Label"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"font_style":"","type":"label","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dst8751e1f3"},"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":1.0},"size":"x-small","fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":true,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"id":"8751e1f3","wrap":true},{"data":[["En lo referente a la política fiscal, se espera una disminución de la expansión fiscal respecto a la acontecida en 2023, cuando el déficit pasó de 5,4% del PIB en 2022 a 6,3% en 2023 (años fiscales). Este nivel de déficit público solo se superó en los últimos años tras la crisis por la pandemia del Covid-19 y la crisis financiera global de 2008, por lo que se tendrá muy en cuenta su desarrollo, no solo por las congruencias necesarias tras el cambio de sesgo monetario, sino también por sus implicaciones en los mercados financieros, ya que la polarización política, los consecuentes desacuerdos sobre el techo de deuda y la falta de medidas fiscales que impliquen reducir el déficit público mantienen la incertidumbre sobre la política fiscal."]],"displayName":"Label 3 Copy","formulas":[{"txt":"69c54a2373698236531ce6e3fc84ae86@PROCICLI 2024,B9;","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"My Label"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"font_style":"","type":"label","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dste431cddc"},"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":2.0},"size":"x-small","fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":true,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"id":"e431cddc","wrap":true}],"displayName":"Layout Grid Copy","id":"e3e4bd29","cellData":[{"x":0.0,"y":0.0,"alignment":1.0},{"x":0.0,"y":1.0,"alignment":1.0}],"type":"panel_grid","rows":3.0,"cols":1.0},{"layoutConfig":{"x":1.0,"y":9.0},"size":"xx-small","data":[["My Label"]],"displayName":"Label 24","fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":false,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"formulas":[{"txt":"\"My Label\"","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"My Label"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"id":"cb7f103f","type":"label","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dstcb7f103f"},"wrap":true},{"data":[["Eurozona"]],"displayName":"Label Copy 4","formulas":[{"txt":"69c54a2373698236531ce6e3fc84ae86@PROCICLI 2024,B11;","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"My Label"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"type":"label","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dst2630454d"},"align":"c","layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":10.0},"size":"x-small","fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":true,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"id":"2630454d","wrap":true},{"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":11.0},"displayName":"Separator Copy","id":"6b457e29","type":"separator"},{"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":12.0},"components":[{"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":0.0},"components":[{"data":[["https://www.economiayseguromapfre.com/wp-content/uploads/klipfolio/PANORAMA/EURO-MONETARIA.jpg"]],"resizeWidth":"360","displayName":"Image 3 Copy","formulas":[{"txt":"\"https://www.economiayseguromapfre.com/wp-content/uploads/klipfolio/PANORAMA/EURO-MONETARIA.jpg\"","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"/images/components/image-placeholder.png"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"scale":"resize","type":"image","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dsta85903c2"},"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":0.0},"fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":false,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"id":"a85903c2","resizeHeight":"420"},{"data":[["https://www.economiayseguromapfre.com/wp-content/uploads/klipfolio/PANORAMA/EURO-FISCAL.jpg"]],"resizeWidth":"360","displayName":"Image 4 Copy","formulas":[{"txt":"\"https://www.economiayseguromapfre.com/wp-content/uploads/klipfolio/PANORAMA/EURO-FISCAL.jpg\"","ver":2.0,"src":{"c":[{"t":"l","v":"/images/components/image-placeholder.png"}],"t":"expr","v":false}}],"autoFmt":true,"scale":"resize","type":"image","fmt":"txt","dstContext":{"kid":"5e0653723d443863713197c200b0ee6b","id":"dsted6d43ca"},"layoutConfig":{"x":1.0,"y":0.0},"fmtArgs":{"resultMetadata":{"resultCount":1.0,"ignoreDateFormat":false,"isAggregated":false,"formulaIsDataPointer":false,"suggestedName":"Unnamed 1","resultAutoDetectedFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"autoFmt":{"fmtArgs":{},"defaultAggregate":"COUNT","fmt":"txt"}},"id":"ed6d43ca","resizeHeight":"420"},{"layoutConfig":{"x":0.0,"y":1.0},"tpl":"
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En este sentido, dadas las expectativas de inflación del BCE, que prevén un retroceso para 2024, se justifica el cambio de sesgo monetario hacia una política expansiva que ayude a cerrar la brecha del producto negativa. 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